If you've been out walking your neighbourhood lately, you may have noticed a few more For Sale signs than usual, and some of them staying up a little longer. That observation lines up with the numbers. September was the month Greater Victoria's market quietly shifted, and it's worth understanding what changed and what didn't before reading too much into the headlines.
Sales Slowed Noticeably in September
A total of 463 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in September. That's down 16.4% from September of last year and 21.7% lower than August. Single family home sales fell 17.3% year over year with 239 sold, while condo sales dipped 11% with 137 units sold. Townhomes saw the biggest pullback, down 26.4% with 53 sold.
At the same time, inventory kept building. There were 3,811 active listings at the end of the month, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% higher than this time last year. More homes to choose from and fewer buyers making moves is the combination that tips a market in the buyer's favour.
Prices by Area and Type
Benchmark prices softened slightly in most areas, but the story varies depending on where you're looking and what kind of home you own. Here's how each part of the region compared to September 2025.
Single Family Homes
Victoria Core: $1,280,100, down 2.0% year over year
Westshore: $1,019,800, down 1.2% year over year
Peninsula: $1,261,000, down 1.4% year over year
The Peninsula held up best over the past month, slipping only 0.4% from August. The Core saw the largest monthly adjustment at 1.7%, which is still a modest move for a market of this size.
Condos
Victoria Core: $547,800, up 1.0% year over year
Peninsula: $639,900, up 3.4% year over year
Westshore: $478,800, down 4.0% year over year
Peninsula condos were the only benchmark in the entire report to rise from August, up 1.5% in a single month. For downsizers looking at Sidney and the surrounding communities, that tells me demand for low maintenance living close to the water is holding steady.
Townhomes
Victoria Core: $829,400, down 1.7% year over year
Westshore: $703,100, down 0.8% year over year
Peninsula: $828,100, up 0.9% year over year
Townhomes gave back some of the gains they showed last month, with the Core dipping 3.1% from August. Because fewer townhomes are selling overall, a handful of sales can move these numbers more than usual, so I'd treat them as a direction rather than a verdict.
What a Buyer's Market Actually Means
The sales to active listings ratio dropped to roughly 15% in September. Based on research by the BC Real Estate Association, anything below 17% points to downward pressure on prices, which is how a buyer's market is defined in Victoria. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne noted that outside the early pandemic months, this is the first buyer's market we've seen here since January 2015.
He was also quick to add that one month doesn't make a trend, and I agree. September looked very different from July and August, and October could look different again. What I'm hearing in my own conversations is that buyers are taking their time, asking good questions, and feeling less pressure to compromise. Sellers who are priced for today's conditions are still finding buyers, but the margin for overpricing has gotten much smaller.
Inflation and Mortgage Rates
Canada's inflation rate held at 3.0% in August for the second month in a row, driven largely by gasoline prices. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures sit much closer to its 2% target, which gives the Bank room to stay patient. The overnight rate has held at 2.25% since October 2025, and the next announcement comes at the end of October.
If you're wondering how today's rates would affect a purchase or an upcoming renewal, I'm always happy to connect you with a mortgage broker I trust. Looking at your whole financial picture is what gives you real clarity, and the rate is only one part of it.
Population Growth Has Nearly Stalled
Statistics Canada's latest estimates show BC's population grew just 0.1% between July 2025 and July 2026, the slowest of any province. The number of non-permanent residents in BC also kept declining, which continues to soften demand in the rental and entry level condo markets. At the same time, the share of British Columbians aged 65 and older rose to 21.1%. That's a trend I see every day in my work with downsizers who are thinking carefully about what their next chapter should look like.
Financial Pressures Are Still Real
Many homeowners are renewing their mortgages at rates well above what they locked in a few years ago, and that adjustment is showing up in household budgets across the region. If you have a renewal coming up in the next year, starting the conversation early gives you more options and less stress. A calmer market is a good time to review where you stand, rather than waiting for a deadline to make the decision for you.
Looking Ahead
Inventory usually tapers off through the winter, so today's level of choice may not carry into the new year. If you're a qualified buyer, this fall offers more selection and more room to negotiate than we've seen in a long time. If you're selling, an honest conversation about pricing for today's market, rather than last spring's, matters more than ever.
For downsizers, there's an upside here that's easy to miss. If you're selling and buying in the same market, softer conditions often show up on both sides of your move, and Peninsula condos have been one of the steadiest segments we track. For anyone relocating from Toronto or Vancouver, Greater Victoria is offering more choice right now than it has in a decade. Having made that move myself, I know how much easier it feels when you aren't racing against a dozen other offers.
Thinking About Your Next Move?
Every neighbourhood and property type is behaving a little differently right now, and the headlines don't tell the whole story. Whether you're buying, selling, downsizing, or simply curious about what your home is worth in today's market, I'm happy to walk you through what these numbers mean for your situation.
Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
call/text: 250-415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
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