Sales Rebound, Inventory Grows & Balanced Conditions Firmly Take Hold
Through February, both the broader Canadian economy and the Greater Victoria housing market continued settling into a more stable and predictable rhythm after several years of rapid change.
We are no longer in a volatility-driven market.
We are in a strategy-driven one.
The Economy at a Glance
On January 28, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate at 2.25%, reinforcing stability in borrowing costs.
Nationally, economic growth has softened. GDP contracted in the final quarter of 2025 — the slowest annual growth since 2020 — with trade uncertainty and slowing manufacturing output contributing to weaker momentum.
The labour market remains mixed. While employment has shown resilience in some sectors, elevated unemployment levels and cautious hiring have tempered consumer confidence.
The key takeaway for homeowners and buyers alike is this: interest rates are steady and economic signals are clearer. Stability — even modest stability — reduces uncertainty and allows households to plan.
Greater Victoria Market – February 2026
February marked a noticeable shift locally.
A total of 465 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region.
That represents:
• 37.2% more sales than January 2026
• 11.9% fewer sales than February 2025
The year-over-year decline reflects normalization from stronger 2025 activity. The significant month-over-month increase signals spring momentum building.
Property Type Breakdown
Single Family Homes
206 sold
↓ 12% compared to February 2025
Condominiums
154 sold
↓ 19.8% compared to February 2025
Townhomes
66 sold
↑ 11.9% compared to February 2025
Townhomes were the only segment to see year-over-year growth, suggesting continued demand for mid-range housing options.
Inventory: The Defining Story
At the end of February, there were 2,903 active listings on the Victoria Real Estate Board MLS®.
That is:
• Up 10.6% from January 2026
• Up 10.4% from February 2025 (2,630 listings last year)
This rising inventory is what has moved our market firmly into balanced territory.
A balanced market means:
• Buyers have choice
• Sellers face competition
• Pricing matters more than urgency
We are no longer in scarcity conditions. But we are also not in a buyer’s market oversupply environment.
Prices in the Victoria Core
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark values tell a very steady story.
Single Family Home Benchmark
February 2025: $1,319,100
February 2026: $1,307,400
↓ 0.9% year over year
↑ From January’s $1,265,500
Condominium Benchmark
February 2025: $549,600
February 2026: $545,600
↓ 0.7% year over year
↑ From January’s $537,800
Townhome benchmark (Victoria Core): $842,800
The key detail: both single-family and condo benchmarks increased from January levels.
That signals stabilization — not decline.
Prices are not accelerating rapidly.
They are adjusting gradually and holding relatively steady.
What This Means for Buyers
Buyers are operating in a healthier environment than we’ve seen in years.
With nearly 3,000 listings available, there is more time to compare properties and negotiate thoughtfully.
Interest rates are stable. Inventory is elevated. Competition is measured.
However, well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods still attract attention quickly. Preparation and clarity remain advantages.
Balanced does not mean slow — it means strategic.
What This Means for Sellers
Demand is present — but it is selective.
The 37% jump in sales from January shows buyers are active as we approach spring. But with more inventory available, pricing and presentation are critical.
Testing the market is risky.
Entering strategically is effective.
Balanced conditions reward sellers who understand positioning.
Mortgage Renewals & Refinancing
Even if you are not planning to move, this market matters — especially if you have a mortgage renewal approaching.
Many homeowners who secured ultra-low fixed rates several years ago are now renewing at higher rates. While the Bank of Canada has held its key rate steady, payments may increase for some households at renewal.
Reviewing your renewal strategy early can provide flexibility and clarity.
If helpful, I’m happy to connect you with a trusted mortgage professional to explore renewal options, refinancing strategies, or simply review your numbers before your term comes up.
Looking Ahead to Spring 2026
February’s activity suggests we are entering spring with:
• Rising inventory
• Stabilizing prices
• Renewed month-over-month sales momentum
• Balanced market conditions
We are not seeing rapid appreciation.
We are not seeing distress.
We are seeing normalization.
For move-up buyers, downsizers, and long-term planners, balanced markets often create some of the best opportunities — because both sides of the transaction operate under similar conditions.
If you’d like a deeper breakdown of what this means specifically for your neighbourhood — Sidney, the Peninsula, Westshore, Victoria Core — I’m always happy to provide a personalized update.
If you’re considering a move — whether upsizing, downsizing, or relocating within Greater Victoria — planning early will create the strongest outcome.
Jacqueline Ross
REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker Oceanside Real Estate
📞 (250) 415-5656
✉️ jac@yourvanislehome.com
🌐 www.YourVanIsleHome.com
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