A month ago, the headlines were all about Victoria tipping into a buyer's market, but that was never the whole picture. October's numbers brought the region back to balanced, and what you'll find really depends on the neighbourhood and type of home you're looking at. Some areas may still favour buyers, while others are showing a much more balanced market. I was in three different multiple offer situations myself in October alone, so I know firsthand how much can be happening beneath a regional headline. Add in the Bank of Canada's first rate increase in more than three years, and there's a lot to sort through. Let's look at what actually changed and what it means for your next move.
October at a Glance
573 properties sold, down 7.1% from October 2025 and up 23.8% from September
3,594 active listings, down 5.7% from September and up 5% from last year
1,138 new listings, above the five year average of 1,060
Victoria Core single family benchmark of $1,288,600, up 0.7% from last year
Victoria Core condo benchmark of $533,900, down 2.8% from last year
Bank of Canada overnight rate of 2.50%, up a quarter point on October 28
Sales Picked Up From a Quiet September
A total of 573 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in October. That's 7.1% fewer than the 617 sold last October, but 23.8% more than in September. Single family home sales fell 13.4% year over year with 303 sold, and condo sales fell 15.1% with 135 units sold. Townhomes went the other way, up 20% with 90 sold.
The bigger story is how ordinary that total is. October's sales were very close to the five year average of 581, while new listings came in a little higher than usual at 1,138. After September's slowdown, it's a reminder that one month rarely tells the whole story.
There were 3,594 active listings at the end of the month, down 5.7% from September and up 5% from this time last year. Inventory has come down from its June peak, but there's still a healthy number of homes to choose from.
Prices by Area and Type
Benchmark prices moved in different directions depending on where you're looking and what kind of home you own. Here's how each part of the region compared to October 2025.
Single Family Homes
Victoria Core: $1,288,600, up 0.7% year over year
Westshore: $1,006,300, down 1.2% year over year
Peninsula: $1,256,700, down 1.0% year over year
The Core was the only area to gain ground, up from $1,280,100 in September. The Westshore saw the largest monthly dip at 1.3%, while the Peninsula slipped just 0.3%.
Condos
Victoria Core: $533,900, down 2.8% year over year
Westshore: $489,000, down 3.4% year over year
Peninsula: $655,100, up 5.8% year over year
The Core fell from $547,800 in September, a noticeable drop for a single month, while the Westshore rose 2.1% and the Peninsula rose 2.4%. Benchmarks can shift from month to month, so I'd treat this as a direction rather than a verdict. Still, the Peninsula's 5.8% gain over the past year is worth noting if you're a downsizer looking at Sidney and the surrounding communities.
Townhomes
Victoria Core: $824,800, down 2.1% year over year
Westshore: $693,500, down 0.7% year over year
Peninsula: $822,500, down 0.5% year over year
Townhome benchmarks slipped slightly in all three areas, even as sales rose 20% from last year. Fewer townhomes sell each month, so a handful of sales can move these numbers more than usual.
What a Balanced Market Actually Means
September's data pointed to a buyer's market for the first time in years, and October moved us back to balanced. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne was careful to say that a single month doesn't establish a trend, and that much of 2026 has been relatively balanced. October proved his point.
A balanced market doesn't mean every home or neighbourhood is behaving the same way. Kyne also noted that conditions can vary considerably between areas and property types, and that some may continue to favour buyers. That's why the regional headline is only a starting point.
The Bank of Canada Raised Rates
On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. It's the first increase since July 2023, and it ended a year of holding at 2.25%. Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, driven largely by gas prices, and the Bank now expects inflation to stay above 3% through much of 2027.
The Bank's concern is that higher energy costs could spread into broader inflation. Governor Tiff Macklem said further increases may be needed, but that the Bank will proceed carefully and take its decisions one meeting at a time. The next announcement is December 9.
What this means for you depends on the kind of mortgage you have. With a variable rate mortgage, your rate rises when your lender raises its prime rate, which can mean a higher regular payment. If your payment is fixed, it may stay the same at first, with more going toward interest and less toward principal. If you reach your trigger rate, though, your lender may require you to increase it. Home equity and other lines of credit tied to prime will rise too.
If you have a fixed rate mortgage, your rate and payment won't change during your current term. Rates on new fixed mortgages can still move, but they don't automatically follow the Bank's rate. For a sense of scale, a quarter point adds about $62 a month at today's lowest variable rates on a $500,000 purchase with 10% down and a 25 year amortization.
If a first home is on your list, or you're hoping to help an adult child get there, December 31 is a date worth noting. Contribution room in a First Home Savings Account only starts building once you open one, even if you don't put anything in yet. Open an account in 2026 and you could have $16,000 of room in 2027, compared with $8,000 if you wait until January. Opening one also starts a maximum 15 year participation period, so it's worth thinking through your timeline first.
Every household is different, so what works for your neighbour may not be the right fit for you. Whether you're renewing, buying, or planning ahead, I'm always happy to connect you with a great mortgage broker who can help you understand your own financial options.
Population Growth Is Still Nearly Flat
Statistics Canada's latest estimates show BC's population grew by just 0.1% between July 2025 and July 2026, the slowest of any province. That continues to soften demand in the rental and entry level condo markets. At the same time, more British Columbians are reaching retirement age, which I see in my work with downsizers thinking carefully about their next chapter.
Financial Pressures Are Still Real
Higher gas prices and a rate increase are landing on household budgets that are already stretched. CMHC estimates about 1.15 million Canadian mortgages will renew this year, with another 940,000 next year. If you have a renewal coming up, starting the conversation early gives you more options and less stress.
Looking Ahead
The rate increase came at the very end of the month, so October's sales don't really reflect it yet. November and December will give us a better read on how buyers respond. The next inflation report arrives on November 16, followed by the Bank's decision on December 9.
Inventory also tends to taper through the winter, so today's level of choice may not carry into the new year. For anyone relocating from Toronto or Vancouver, that makes this a good time to get to know our neighbourhoods. Having made that move myself, I know how much easier it feels when you have time to find the right fit.
What This Market Means If You're Buying
You still have choice. With 3,594 listings available, you have time to compare homes and neighbourhoods carefully.
Get your financing sorted early. A mortgage broker can walk you through your options and whether a rate hold makes sense.
Budget for more than the rate. Payments, strata fees, insurance, and everyday costs all matter to your comfort in a new home.
Look closely at condos. The Core and Westshore condo benchmarks have eased over the past year, which may open up options for downsizers.
Think locally. Some neighbourhoods and property types may still favour buyers, even in a balanced market.
What This Market Means If You're Selling
Price for today's market. Buyers have other homes to compare yours to, and they're taking the time to do it.
Preparation counts. With new listings running above average, a well presented home makes a real difference.
Know your segment. Benchmarks moved in different directions by area and property type in October, so your plan should reflect your own home.
Plan both sides of your move. If you're downsizing in the same market, softer conditions can work in your favour on the purchase side.
Think about timing. Inventory often tapers in winter, but what matters most is whether the timing works for your life.
Thinking About Your Next Move?
Every neighbourhood and property type is behaving a little differently right now, and the headlines don't tell the whole story. Whether you're buying, selling, downsizing, or simply curious about what your home is worth, I'm happy to walk you through what these numbers mean for your situation.
Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
call/text: 250-415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
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