A month ago, the headlines were all about Victoria tipping into a buyer's market, but that was never the whole picture. October's numbers brought the region back to balanced, and what you'll find really depends on the neighbourhood and type of home you're looking at. Some areas may still favour buyers, while others are showing a much more balanced market. I was in three different multiple offer situations myself in October alone, so I know firsthand how much can be happening beneath a regional headline. Add in the Bank of Canada's first rate increase in more than three years, and there's a lot to sort through. Let's look at what actually changed and what it means for your next move.

October at a Glance

• 573 properties sold, down 7.1% from October 2025 and up 23.8% from September

• 3,594 active listings, down 5.7% from September and up 5% from last year

• 1,138 new listings, above the five year average of 1,060

• Victoria Core single family benchmark of $1,288,600, up 0.7% from last year

• Victoria Core condo benchmark of $533,900, down 2.8% from last year

• Bank of Canada overnight rate of 2.50%, up a quarter point on October 28

Sales Picked Up From a Quiet September

A total of 573 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in October. That's 7.1% fewer than the 617 sold last October, but 23.8% more than in September. Single family home sales fell 13.4% year over year with 303 sold, and condo sales fell 15.1% with 135 units sold. Townhomes went the other way, up 20% with 90 sold.

The bigger story is how ordinary that total is. October's sales were very close to the five year average of 581, while new listings came in a little higher than usual at 1,138. After September's slowdown, it's a reminder that one month rarely tells the whole story.

There were 3,594 active listings at the end of the month, down 5.7% from September and up 5% from this time last year. Inventory has come down from its June peak, but there's still a healthy number of homes to choose from.

Prices by Area and Type

Benchmark prices moved in different directions depending on where you're looking and what kind of home you own. Here's how each part of the region compared to October 2025.

Single Family Homes

Victoria Core: $1,288,600, up 0.7% year over year

Westshore: $1,006,300, down 1.2% year over year

Peninsula: $1,256,700, down 1.0% year over year

The Core was the only area to gain ground, up from $1,280,100 in September. The Westshore saw the largest monthly dip at 1.3%, while the Peninsula slipped just 0.3%.

Condos

Victoria Core: $533,900, down 2.8% year over year

Westshore: $489,000, down 3.4% year over year

Peninsula: $655,100, up 5.8% year over year

The Core fell from $547,800 in September, a noticeable drop for a single month, while the Westshore rose 2.1% and the Peninsula rose 2.4%. Benchmarks can shift from month to month, so I'd treat this as a direction rather than a verdict. Still, the Peninsula's 5.8% gain over the past year is worth noting if you're a downsizer looking at Sidney and the surrounding communities.

Townhomes

Victoria Core: $824,800, down 2.1% year over year

Westshore: $693,500, down 0.7% year over year

Peninsula: $822,500, down 0.5% year over year

Townhome benchmarks slipped slightly in all three areas, even as sales rose 20% from last year. Fewer townhomes sell each month, so a handful of sales can move these numbers more than usual.

What a Balanced Market Actually Means

September's data pointed to a buyer's market for the first time in years, and October moved us back to balanced. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne was careful to say that a single month doesn't establish a trend, and that much of 2026 has been relatively balanced. October proved his point.

A balanced market doesn't mean every home or neighbourhood is behaving the same way. Kyne also noted that conditions can vary considerably between areas and property types, and that some may continue to favour buyers. That's why the regional headline is only a starting point.

The Bank of Canada Raised Rates

On October 28, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. It's the first increase since July 2023, and it ended a year of holding at 2.25%. Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.1% in September, driven largely by gas prices, and the Bank now expects inflation to stay above 3% through much of 2027.

The Bank's concern is that higher energy costs could spread into broader inflation. Governor Tiff Macklem said further increases may be needed, but that the Bank will proceed carefully and take its decisions one meeting at a time. The next announcement is December 9.

What this means for you depends on the kind of mortgage you have. With a variable rate mortgage, your rate rises when your lender raises its prime rate, which can mean a higher regular payment. If your payment is fixed, it may stay the same at first, with more going toward interest and less toward principal. If you reach your trigger rate, though, your lender may require you to increase it. Home equity and other lines of credit tied to prime will rise too.

If you have a fixed rate mortgage, your rate and payment won't change during your current term. Rates on new fixed mortgages can still move, but they don't automatically follow the Bank's rate. For a sense of scale, a quarter point adds about $62 a month at today's lowest variable rates on a $500,000 purchase with 10% down and a 25 year amortization.

If a first home is on your list, or you're hoping to help an adult child get there, December 31 is a date worth noting. Contribution room in a First Home Savings Account only starts building once you open one, even if you don't put anything in yet. Open an account in 2026 and you could have $16,000 of room in 2027, compared with $8,000 if you wait until January. Opening one also starts a maximum 15 year participation period, so it's worth thinking through your timeline first.

Every household is different, so what works for your neighbour may not be the right fit for you. Whether you're renewing, buying, or planning ahead, I'm always happy to connect you with a great mortgage broker who can help you understand your own financial options.

Population Growth Is Still Nearly Flat

Statistics Canada's latest estimates show BC's population grew by just 0.1% between July 2025 and July 2026, the slowest of any province. That continues to soften demand in the rental and entry level condo markets. At the same time, more British Columbians are reaching retirement age, which I see in my work with downsizers thinking carefully about their next chapter.

Financial Pressures Are Still Real

Higher gas prices and a rate increase are landing on household budgets that are already stretched. CMHC estimates about 1.15 million Canadian mortgages will renew this year, with another 940,000 next year. If you have a renewal coming up, starting the conversation early gives you more options and less stress.

Looking Ahead

The rate increase came at the very end of the month, so October's sales don't really reflect it yet. November and December will give us a better read on how buyers respond. The next inflation report arrives on November 16, followed by the Bank's decision on December 9.

Inventory also tends to taper through the winter, so today's level of choice may not carry into the new year. For anyone relocating from Toronto or Vancouver, that makes this a good time to get to know our neighbourhoods. Having made that move myself, I know how much easier it feels when you have time to find the right fit.

What This Market Means If You're Buying

• You still have choice. With 3,594 listings available, you have time to compare homes and neighbourhoods carefully.

• Get your financing sorted early. A mortgage broker can walk you through your options and whether a rate hold makes sense.

• Budget for more than the rate. Payments, strata fees, insurance, and everyday costs all matter to your comfort in a new home.

• Look closely at condos. The Core and Westshore condo benchmarks have eased over the past year, which may open up options for downsizers.

• Think locally. Some neighbourhoods and property types may still favour buyers, even in a balanced market.

What This Market Means If You're Selling

• Price for today's market. Buyers have other homes to compare yours to, and they're taking the time to do it.

• Preparation counts. With new listings running above average, a well presented home makes a real difference.

• Know your segment. Benchmarks moved in different directions by area and property type in October, so your plan should reflect your own home.

• Plan both sides of your move. If you're downsizing in the same market, softer conditions can work in your favour on the purchase side.

• Think about timing. Inventory often tapers in winter, but what matters most is whether the timing works for your life.

Thinking About Your Next Move?

Every neighbourhood and property type is behaving a little differently right now, and the headlines don't tell the whole story. Whether you're buying, selling, downsizing, or simply curious about what your home is worth, I'm happy to walk you through what these numbers mean for your situation.

Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
call/text: 250-415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
Instagram | Facebook

If you've been out walking your neighbourhood lately, you may have noticed a few more For Sale signs than usual, and some of them staying up a little longer. That observation lines up with the numbers. September was the month Greater Victoria's market quietly shifted, and it's worth understanding what changed and what didn't before reading too much into the headlines.

Sales Slowed Noticeably in September

A total of 463 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in September. That's down 16.4% from September of last year and 21.7% lower than August. Single family home sales fell 17.3% year over year with 239 sold, while condo sales dipped 11% with 137 units sold. Townhomes saw the biggest pullback, down 26.4% with 53 sold.

At the same time, inventory kept building. There were 3,811 active listings at the end of the month, up 4.1% from August and 3.2% higher than this time last year. More homes to choose from and fewer buyers making moves is the combination that tips a market in the buyer's favour.

Prices by Area and Type

Benchmark prices softened slightly in most areas, but the story varies depending on where you're looking and what kind of home you own. Here's how each part of the region compared to September 2025.

Single Family Homes

Victoria Core: $1,280,100, down 2.0% year over year

Westshore: $1,019,800, down 1.2% year over year

Peninsula: $1,261,000, down 1.4% year over year

The Peninsula held up best over the past month, slipping only 0.4% from August. The Core saw the largest monthly adjustment at 1.7%, which is still a modest move for a market of this size.

Condos

Victoria Core: $547,800, up 1.0% year over year

Peninsula: $639,900, up 3.4% year over year

Westshore: $478,800, down 4.0% year over year

Peninsula condos were the only benchmark in the entire report to rise from August, up 1.5% in a single month. For downsizers looking at Sidney and the surrounding communities, that tells me demand for low maintenance living close to the water is holding steady.

Townhomes

Victoria Core: $829,400, down 1.7% year over year

Westshore: $703,100, down 0.8% year over year

Peninsula: $828,100, up 0.9% year over year

Townhomes gave back some of the gains they showed last month, with the Core dipping 3.1% from August. Because fewer townhomes are selling overall, a handful of sales can move these numbers more than usual, so I'd treat them as a direction rather than a verdict.

What a Buyer's Market Actually Means

The sales to active listings ratio dropped to roughly 15% in September. Based on research by the BC Real Estate Association, anything below 17% points to downward pressure on prices, which is how a buyer's market is defined in Victoria. VREB Chair Fergus Kyne noted that outside the early pandemic months, this is the first buyer's market we've seen here since January 2015.

He was also quick to add that one month doesn't make a trend, and I agree. September looked very different from July and August, and October could look different again. What I'm hearing in my own conversations is that buyers are taking their time, asking good questions, and feeling less pressure to compromise. Sellers who are priced for today's conditions are still finding buyers, but the margin for overpricing has gotten much smaller.

Inflation and Mortgage Rates

Canada's inflation rate held at 3.0% in August for the second month in a row, driven largely by gasoline prices. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures sit much closer to its 2% target, which gives the Bank room to stay patient. The overnight rate has held at 2.25% since October 2025, and the next announcement comes at the end of October.

If you're wondering how today's rates would affect a purchase or an upcoming renewal, I'm always happy to connect you with a mortgage broker I trust. Looking at your whole financial picture is what gives you real clarity, and the rate is only one part of it.

Population Growth Has Nearly Stalled

Statistics Canada's latest estimates show BC's population grew just 0.1% between July 2025 and July 2026, the slowest of any province. The number of non-permanent residents in BC also kept declining, which continues to soften demand in the rental and entry level condo markets. At the same time, the share of British Columbians aged 65 and older rose to 21.1%. That's a trend I see every day in my work with downsizers who are thinking carefully about what their next chapter should look like.

Financial Pressures Are Still Real

Many homeowners are renewing their mortgages at rates well above what they locked in a few years ago, and that adjustment is showing up in household budgets across the region. If you have a renewal coming up in the next year, starting the conversation early gives you more options and less stress. A calmer market is a good time to review where you stand, rather than waiting for a deadline to make the decision for you.

Looking Ahead

Inventory usually tapers off through the winter, so today's level of choice may not carry into the new year. If you're a qualified buyer, this fall offers more selection and more room to negotiate than we've seen in a long time. If you're selling, an honest conversation about pricing for today's market, rather than last spring's, matters more than ever.

For downsizers, there's an upside here that's easy to miss. If you're selling and buying in the same market, softer conditions often show up on both sides of your move, and Peninsula condos have been one of the steadiest segments we track. For anyone relocating from Toronto or Vancouver, Greater Victoria is offering more choice right now than it has in a decade. Having made that move myself, I know how much easier it feels when you aren't racing against a dozen other offers.

Thinking About Your Next Move?

Every neighbourhood and property type is behaving a little differently right now, and the headlines don't tell the whole story. Whether you're buying, selling, downsizing, or simply curious about what your home is worth in today's market, I'm happy to walk you through what these numbers mean for your situation.

Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
call/text: 250-415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
Instagram | Facebook

Sales activity picked up in a big way this August

August closed with 591 properties sold across Greater Victoria, up 12.6% compared to August of last year. Single family homes led the charge, up 15.3% year over year with 309 sold, while condo sales climbed just as strongly, up 15.1% with 175 units sold. Townhome sales were the one softer spot, down 4.5% with 63 sold.

There were 3,662 active listings at month end, down 4.8% from July but up 1.7% from this time last year, giving buyers real choice heading into fall.

Home prices are holding steady, with some variation by area
The benchmark price for a single family home in the Victoria Core sits at $1,301,800, down 1.2% from last year. The Westshore single family benchmark is $1,031,900, up 0.5% year over year, one of the steadiest corners of the market right now. The Peninsula benchmark is $1,266,000, down 1.9% from last year.

Condos found some footing this month.
The Core condo benchmark is $553,600, up 0.9% from August 2025, and the Peninsula condo benchmark climbed to $630,300, up 3.3% year over year, the strongest gain we're tracking anywhere. The Westshore condo benchmark eased to $485,400, down 3.8% year over year.

Townhomes stayed steady overall, with the Core benchmark at $856,300, up 1.7% year over year. Even with fewer townhomes changing hands, the ones that sold held their value well.

Buyers are engaged and moving with confidence
The sales to active listings ratio sits comfortably around 20%, right in the balanced range. What's standing out in my conversations lately isn't hesitation, it's buyers who've done their homework and are ready to act when the right home comes along.

Inflation and mortgage rates
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady at 2.25% through to September 2nd, unchanged since October of last year. Most economists expect mortgage rates to remain relatively stable through the rest of 2026. If you want to better understand how this rate hold would affect you and your mortgage options, I’m happy to connect you with a great mortgage broker. Looking beyond rates at your whole financial situation will provide a clearer picture.

Population growth remains slow
BC's population growth has continued to slow, and federal policy changes reducing non-permanent residents continue to weigh on demand in the condo and rental markets, even as permanent immigration holds relatively strong.

Financial pressures are real
Mortgage renewals continue to land at rates well above what many homeowners locked in a few years ago, and delinquencies in BC remain above year ago levels. For homeowners approaching a renewal, getting ahead of your options continues to matter.

Looking ahead
The rest of 2026 continues to shape up as a balanced market with strong inventory and buyer choice, steady prices overall, and mortgage rates likely to hold near current levels through year end. Well priced, well prepared sellers, particularly of single family homes and townhomes, are still achieving strong results.

Thinking about making a move?
Every neighbourhood and property type is performing differently in today's market. Whether you are buying, selling, downsizing, or curious about what your home is worth right now, I'm happy to walk you through what this market means for your unique situation.

Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
call/text: 250-415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
Instagram | Facebook

Sales Rebound, Inventory Grows & Balanced Conditions Firmly Take Hold

Through February, both the broader Canadian economy and the Greater Victoria housing market continued settling into a more stable and predictable rhythm after several years of rapid change.

We are no longer in a volatility-driven market.
We are in a strategy-driven one.

The Economy at a Glance

On January 28, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate at 2.25%, reinforcing stability in borrowing costs.

Nationally, economic growth has softened. GDP contracted in the final quarter of 2025 — the slowest annual growth since 2020 — with trade uncertainty and slowing manufacturing output contributing to weaker momentum.

The labour market remains mixed. While employment has shown resilience in some sectors, elevated unemployment levels and cautious hiring have tempered consumer confidence.

The key takeaway for homeowners and buyers alike is this: interest rates are steady and economic signals are clearer. Stability — even modest stability — reduces uncertainty and allows households to plan.

Greater Victoria Market – February 2026

February marked a noticeable shift locally.

A total of 465 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region.

That represents:
• 37.2% more sales than January 2026
• 11.9% fewer sales than February 2025

The year-over-year decline reflects normalization from stronger 2025 activity. The significant month-over-month increase signals spring momentum building.

Property Type Breakdown

Single Family Homes
206 sold
↓ 12% compared to February 2025

Condominiums
154 sold
↓ 19.8% compared to February 2025

Townhomes
66 sold
↑ 11.9% compared to February 2025

Townhomes were the only segment to see year-over-year growth, suggesting continued demand for mid-range housing options.

Inventory: The Defining Story

At the end of February, there were 2,903 active listings on the Victoria Real Estate Board MLS®.

That is:
• Up 10.6% from January 2026
• Up 10.4% from February 2025 (2,630 listings last year)

This rising inventory is what has moved our market firmly into balanced territory.

A balanced market means:
• Buyers have choice
• Sellers face competition
• Pricing matters more than urgency

We are no longer in scarcity conditions. But we are also not in a buyer’s market oversupply environment.

Prices in the Victoria Core

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark values tell a very steady story.

Single Family Home Benchmark
February 2025: $1,319,100
February 2026: $1,307,400
↓ 0.9% year over year
↑ From January’s $1,265,500

Condominium Benchmark
February 2025: $549,600
February 2026: $545,600
↓ 0.7% year over year
↑ From January’s $537,800

Townhome benchmark (Victoria Core): $842,800

The key detail: both single-family and condo benchmarks increased from January levels.

That signals stabilization — not decline.

Prices are not accelerating rapidly.
They are adjusting gradually and holding relatively steady.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers are operating in a healthier environment than we’ve seen in years.

With nearly 3,000 listings available, there is more time to compare properties and negotiate thoughtfully.

Interest rates are stable. Inventory is elevated. Competition is measured.

However, well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods still attract attention quickly. Preparation and clarity remain advantages.

Balanced does not mean slow — it means strategic.

What This Means for Sellers

Demand is present — but it is selective.

The 37% jump in sales from January shows buyers are active as we approach spring. But with more inventory available, pricing and presentation are critical.

Testing the market is risky.
Entering strategically is effective.

Balanced conditions reward sellers who understand positioning.

Mortgage Renewals & Refinancing

Even if you are not planning to move, this market matters — especially if you have a mortgage renewal approaching.

Many homeowners who secured ultra-low fixed rates several years ago are now renewing at higher rates. While the Bank of Canada has held its key rate steady, payments may increase for some households at renewal.

Reviewing your renewal strategy early can provide flexibility and clarity.

If helpful, I’m happy to connect you with a trusted mortgage professional to explore renewal options, refinancing strategies, or simply review your numbers before your term comes up.

Looking Ahead to Spring 2026

February’s activity suggests we are entering spring with:

• Rising inventory
• Stabilizing prices
• Renewed month-over-month sales momentum
• Balanced market conditions

We are not seeing rapid appreciation.
We are not seeing distress.

We are seeing normalization.

For move-up buyers, downsizers, and long-term planners, balanced markets often create some of the best opportunities — because both sides of the transaction operate under similar conditions.

If you’d like a deeper breakdown of what this means specifically for your neighbourhood — Sidney, the Peninsula, Westshore, Victoria Core — I’m always happy to provide a personalized update.

If you’re considering a move — whether upsizing, downsizing, or relocating within Greater Victoria — planning early will create the strongest outcome.

Jacqueline Ross, REALTOR®
Your Van Isle Home
(250) 415-5656
jac@yourvanislehome.com
Instagram | Facebook

Helping you find home — and community — here in Victoria, BC.