What January’s numbers, inventory levels, and interest rates mean for buyers and sellers.
As we move further into early 2026, the Victoria real estate market continues to settle into a more balanced and predictable rhythm after several years of uncertainty. With January sales now reported and interest rates holding steady, we’re seeing conditions that feel calmer, more intentional, and easier to navigate for both buyers and sellers.
The Economic Backdrop
On January 18, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its overnight rate steady. This reflects an economy that is gradually cooling without showing signs of major stress. Inflation has continued to ease, employment remains relatively strong, and recent GDP numbers have been inconsistent month to month.
Most major banks expect the overnight rate to remain near 2.25% through much of 2026. While rates are lower than they were a year ago, the bigger shift is stability. That predictability is helping buyers plan more confidently and giving sellers greater clarity around demand.
Greater Victoria Market – January 2026
According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, 339 properties sold across the region in January. This was down from January 2025 and slightly below December, following typical seasonal patterns.
Condominium sales declined year over year, with 109 units sold.
Single family home sales also dipped compared to last January, with 153 homes sold.
Inventory remains the standout story. At the end of January, there were 2,624 active listings on the MLS®, up from both December and the same time last year. This increase in supply is easing upward pressure on pricing and giving buyers more choice than they’ve had in several years.
Board Chair Fergus Kyne noted that the market is currently sitting between balanced and buyer-leaning conditions. While one month doesn’t establish a long-term trend, January offered more selection for buyers and clearer expectations for sellers.
Pricing Trends in Victoria
Benchmark prices continue to adjust modestly. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core was down approximately 2.5% compared to January last year, though prices did rise slightly from December.
Condominium benchmark values were down about 1.5% year over year and softened from December levels.
Overall, this reflects a market that is adjusting rather than correcting, with values supported by long-term demand and improved affordability compared to recent years.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, today’s market offers more choice, less competition, and stable borrowing conditions — creating space to make thoughtful decisions instead of rushed ones. Local mortgage professional Paul Macara of Macara Mortgages notes that uncertainty doesn’t automatically mean risk. When confidence is lower, buyers often gain more time to negotiate and focus on fit: the right home, the right payment, and the right mortgage structure.
“When the headlines feel noisy, the goal is simple: make sure your mortgage plan still fits your life.”
— Paul Macara, Mortgage Professional, The Mortgage Group
If you’d like an introduction to the team at The Mortgage Group, I’m always happy to connect you so you can explore your options with clarity and confidence.
For sellers, this is a market that rewards preparation, strong presentation, and realistic pricing. Buyers are moving more intentionally, and understanding how your specific neighbourhood is performing matters more than ever.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or reviewing your mortgage options, this market is less about reacting to headlines and more about making decisions that align with your longer-term plans.
Looking Ahead to 2026
As the year continues, earlier interest rate cuts are beginning to bring some buyers back into the market, particularly those who paused during periods of uncertainty. At the same time, higher inventory levels and affordability considerations are keeping price growth in check.
Most experts are forecasting steady, measured improvement rather than a rapid rebound — a healthier pace for long-term market stability.
Whether you’re planning to buy or sell in 2026, I’d love to walk you through what this market means for your specific plans. Reach out to me at anytime 250-415-5656.
Jacqueline Ross
REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker Oceanside Real Estate
📞 (250) 415-5656
✉️ jac@yourvanislehome.com
🌐 www.YourVanIsleHome.com
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